The Democratic primary for U.S. Senate is crowded, like crazy crowded with a dozen candidates on the ballot. You can hardly turn around without bumping into a candidate. How many candidates does it take to change a light bulb? I don't know, but I know there is a joke in there somewhere. I digress... So the questions many people have are, "who do I choose, and where is my other argyle sock?" I am going to run down a logic trail here that may help a few people out and piss off a few others.
Drum roll please, here are the candidates.
- Chris Bell
- Michael Cooper
- Amanda Edwards
- Jack Daniel Foster Jr.
- Annie Garcia
- Victor Harris
- Mary Jennings Hegar
- Sema Hernandez
- D.R. Hunter
- Adrian Ocegueda
- Cristina Tzintzún Ramirez
- Royce West
The first thing we have to look at is a candidate's viability. How well are they doing at raising money is the best way to figure this out. Why? Because if a candidate can't raise money, they should not be running. It is just that simple. A big race like this takes a lot of gas, staff, and advertising to get the word out. In a big state like Texas, that means millions of dollars. The phenom and gold standard Beto raised $79M. The incumbent Senator John Cornyn raised $2.75M this last quarter and has an impressive $12M in the bank. We have to have someone who can go up against that and compete.
So which candidates are making the cut?
MJ Hegar $3.2M raised with $1M on hand.
Royce West $1M raised with $500K on hand
Cristina Tzintzún Ramirez $800K raised with $230K on hand
Amanda Edwards raised $800K with 330K on hand
Chris Bell raised $300K with 8K on hand
For the full list visit opensecrets.org
No one else cracked 100K, so they are not viable. I tell every candidate I talk to that if you can't look everyone you know in the eyes and say, "I need your vote and I need your money," then you aren't cut out to do this. Unless you can self fund your candidacy, like Bloomberg, then you operate within the reality of your fundraising skills. Some people are just better at it than others or are connected to people with deep pockets.
That leaves the top 4 real candidates, with Chris Bell hanging on. MJ clearly has the advantage with 3x the next candidate.
Experience
Voters like to elect people who have experience and have proven they have grit.
Royce West, hands down has the most experience. He has served in the Texas Senate since 1992.
Chris Bell was elected to the US House of Representatives for one term in 2002 and served on Houston City Council prior to that.
Amanda Edwards was elected to Houston city council in 2016 and left office recently.
That is it. Kind of sparse huh?
Ideology
This is tricky since most of these candidates are moderates. First off, if you are progressive like me, you will vote for Cristina. She is the only candidate on my shortlist that supports the entire slate of progressive ideas like medicare for all, gun laws ( including banning assault weapons), universal childcare, canceling student debt and more. You get the idea. You can visit her site and read all about it.
If you are more centrist then it gets trickier.
MJ Hegar supports the ACA, gun laws and more but from a more moderate stance. Visit her site here to get the scoop.
Senator West also supports the ACA, limited free college, gun laws and more. For more info visit his site here.
Amanda Edwards supports the ACA, college assistance, and noticeably has no info on her stance about guns, which is bizarre if you ask me. For more info about her visit her site.
Chris Bell supports Medicare for All, basic gun laws and disabled rights and more. Visit his site here.
Polling ( added at John Stafford's request)
Polling, in my view, is inconclusive since none of the candidates are breaking out. MJ has the highest polling number with an astounding 8%, closely followed by Royce with 6%. But at 56% undecided, the large majority of people do not appear to know who they are voting for, so I am not sure polling does anything to help determine this race at this juncture. Additionally, only 487 people were polled which makes this poll suspect. The margin of error is 4.4%, which is larger than the percentage of all but 3 candidates.
In summary, progressives will lean towards Cristina, and from my viewpoint, there is one highly qualified candidate in the moderate camp, Royce West, and then there is MJ who has raised the most money. Do with that what you will. I will pick proven experience all day long.